Report on Clean Cities by Julia Whitty 

     Amazingly, American cities did it last year. Did the economy collapse? Did the world end? Nope. The way forward just got a little easier to navigate. So reports the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The work was done by Clean Cities, a network of approximately 90 volunteer coalitions developing public/private partnerships to promote alternative and advanced vehicles, fuel blends, fuel economy, hybrid vehicles, and idle reduction. According to the report: Seventy-one percent of the 2006 gasoline displacement came from the use of alternative fuels.  Thirty percent of that was from the use of compressed natural gas, mostly in heavy-duty vehicles. E85, a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, accounted for 24 percent of gasoline displacement. Coalitions documented the purchase of nearly 44,000 hybrid electric vehicles in 2006, a 61 percent increase over 2005. HEV use displaced about 9 million gallons of gasoline. Idle reduction efforts displaced 8.4 million gallons, including 1.2 million gallons from truck stop electrification. Almost 2 million gallons were saved by reducing the number of miles traveled.  Okay, so it’s not enough to save the world, and it has some built-in problems, say, ethanol. But it shows us how and where to start, and how surprisingly easy it really is when you make up the collective mind. Imagine how the problem might transform into opportunity if the big guns in DC ever get motivated.—Julia Whitty is Mother Jones' Magazine environmental correspondent.

Introduction

     At this writing (summer 2008) world crude oil has fallen from a high of $147 per barrel to below $120, allowing retail gasoline prices to decline from $4.50 and higher to under $4.00 in many states. (Retail prices may differ due to variable tax rates and distribution costs in each state.) When oil traded at $147 many experts predicted that it would go to $175 or $180 before it retreated.  They were betting that the U.S. consumer would not flinch until retail prices exceeded $5 per gallon. They were wrong.  Consumption fell, not just due to the high price for crude but as part, too, of an overall constricting of the U.S. economy (demand destruction).  Inflation is up, unemployment is up, the dollar is down, the housing and financial crises dominate the news. Interesting times, indeed.

     Few of the basics have changed, however.  We are still a nation of drivers nearly totally dependent on oil, two-thirds of it imported.  That’s two-thirds of 20+ million barrels per day—say 14 million barrels.  At $100 or more per barrel it is well over 1 billion dollars per day leaving the U.S. economy!  And much of our crude oil is imported from increasingly unstable parts of the world—the Middle East, Africa, Venezuela.

     According to the Energy Information Administration there are some 200 million licensed drivers in the U.S. driving more than 210 million vehicles—some of them as much as 12,000 or more miles per year.  We burn 145 billion gallons of gasoline annually motoring.  That’s gasoline.  Add another 40+ billion gallons of diesel for trucks, buses and trains and the few diesel-powered automobiles in the U.S. fleet. Our airplane fleet burns another 70 million gallons every day.  70 percent of all U.S. crude oil is used in the transportation sector; transportation is 97 percent dependent on oil.

     As Robert Hirsch states “The world has never faced a problem like this.” 

 

What Does ‘Peak Oil’ Mean?

      In 1956 the noted geophysicist Dr. M. King Hubbert (1903-1989) predicted that crude oil production in the United States would “peak”—reach its maximum level of production—then slowly decline over the coming decades.  Hubbert’s theory was generally discounted at the time but when it proved to be remarkably accurate, geologists and oil companies began to pay attention.  U.S. crude oil production peaked in 1974 and has declined ever since.  Applying Hubbert’s now highly-refined theory to the current world crude oil production situation indicates that global peak will occur sometime between 2008 and 2015.  Some geologists insist peak has already occurred; some say it won’t occur until 2020 or beyond.  Most petroleum geologists agree, though, that most of the world’s largest oil fields have been discovered and exploited to the extent allowed by current technology, and that the world should plan to adjust to a crude oil supply that declines by two to six percent per year for the foreseeable future.

     Numerous organizations around the world keep close watch on the “Peak Oil” supporting numbers—daily production, new discoveries, technology advances, etc. In summer 2008 the total liquid fuels daily production (and consumption) was 75 million barrels of crude oil and condensate and 11 million barrels of other liquids, including natural gas liquids, tar sands, oil shale, etc. for 86 mbpd.  When peak production occurs (if it has not already) production will begin to decline, probably gradually, though it might fail to meet demand as population increases and economies continue to expand, especially those in China, India and Malaysia.

    Confusing the issue, though, are market signals. Oil-consuming nations worry about security of supply--oil-producing nations worry about security of demand. If OPEC and other big producers were certain that long-term investments in new production capacity would find a strong market, they would invest to produce the extra oil. But with all the talk in the West about curbing oil demand, oil producers are thinking twice about investing in new capacity. This argument is presented in a Dutch energy think tank report, the Clingendael International Energy Program. “Asking producing countries to take on the full risk of any possible (but unlikely) over-supply is not fair, and is also not in the long-term interest of the consumer countries,” the report says. The report argues that oil-consuming nations need to help the major oil producers through a gradual transition to a “post-hydrocarbon” economy — not threaten one immediately. The report warns that declining production and increasing demand are going to create a chaotic market with wild price swings and ever-more expensive oil—and geopolitical tensions between the haves and the wants .Of course, that raises the big question: Is a smooth transition to a less-consumptive society what OPEC and other big producers really want? Or do they want oil at $200 a barrel?  (See The Oil Depletion Protocol in Resources)

     The world is not running out of oil.  Probably less than half of the world’s crude oil resource has been delivered and burned.  But the oil used in the past century was most certainly the most easily obtained.  Getting the second half out will be difficult and expensive.  Most petroleum geologists agree that the world’s industrial economies should be preparing for decreasing and more expensive supplies of crude oil.

 
  Climate Change

 Earth’s average surface temperature has warmed by about one degree Fahrenheit in the last 100 years, most of it in the past 50 years. Shrinking glaciers worldwide and Arctic icemelt provide near irrefutable proof of temperature changes.  There is growing evidence that the warming is caused by human activity, specifically the burning of fossil fuels and the wholesale reduction of the tropical rain forest.  A buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide among others—have altered its chemical composition. The sun heats the earth’s surface and the earth radiates some of the energy back into space.  Atmospheric gases trap some of the energy, holding it close to the surface as in a greenhouse.  Without it the earth’s surface would not average the very hospitable 60 degrees F that we enjoy.  Problems occur, though, when the concentration of greenhouse gases increases.  Since the industrial revolution in the late 19^th Century carbon dioxide concentrations have increased nearly 30 percent; methane concentrations have more than doubled; nitrous oxide concentrations have risen 15 percent.

     The impact of global warming is manifesting itself in uncomfortable ways.  Our weather has become more extreme with more violent storms and longer periods of drought. With north and south polar region temperatures rising as much as three to four degrees, Arctic ice packs are melting and glaciers are retreating beyond historical norms.  Scientists warn of grave consequences if we do not curb our appetite for burning fossil fuels. The overwhelming consensus by the world’s most respected scientific organizations is that global warming is for real and needs to be dealt with now.  A debate is shaping up in the United States Congress between two diverging methods of dealing with carbon emissions:  cap and trade and a carbon tax.  Cap and trade—emissions trading—is a method of controlling pollution by setting a specific amount of emission allowed. The polluting companies must then either meet that goal or “trade” (purchase) the credit to pollute from a company that has met the goal with margin to spare.  Companies prefer emissions trading to a straight tax.  The European Union is struggling with its cap and trade system, however, and the carbon tax method of controlling greenhouse gas emissions is gaining traction with lawmakers. 

     Crude oil is finite and supplies will soon likely begin to decrease at an estimated 5 percent rate annually.  Biofuels can never replace the 140+ billion gallons of gasoline and 40+ billion gallons of diesel currently consumed annually in the U.S. We need to totally rethink, redesign and rebuild our North American transportation systems with the centerpiece something other than an automobile powered by an internal combustion engine.
 

     Media outlets have been buzzing about oil supply, climate change and various transportation options to consider in the face of rising prices at the fuel pump, often generating feelings of confusion and uncertainty about the best path to take.  Take heart.  There is more than one trail up the mountain and the alternatives can be healthy, enjoyable and better serve the nation, too.

      The most important thing to do in getting started with displacing consumption of petroleum is taking a first step.  There are many choices to get you going in a positive direction; one that leads toward a sustainable future for personal mobility and transportation.

     To begin with, conservation is definitely more than just a personal virtue. A July 2008 government report announced that over the previous seven months Americans had saved millions of gallons of petroleum, under previous levels of consumption, by taking matters into their own hands and simply driving less—three to four percent less which translates to billions of miles.  The cutback has contributed to the stabilization of gas prices after a period of dramatic increases.

      Amory Lovins, cofounder and chief scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, has long advocated that energy efficiency can, indeed, result in significant energy and financial savings.  Steps to take to initiate a significant drop in your vehicle fuel consumption include cooperating with your family and friends to plan and consolidate vehicle trips-with a side benefit of creating some quality time with them.  The average household makes five round trips per day.  Cutting out only one of those round trips per day equates to a 20% fuel savings.  Or cut out one weekday of driving altogether by working at home, biking, taking a car holiday or using public transit. Regular vehicle maintenance, proper tire inflation, limiting your driving speed to no more than 60 mph, avoiding carrying heavy loads unnecessarily and avoiding idling (yes, including diesels) can each contribute a 5%-30 % savings, depending on your driving habits.

Conservation

     Any discussion of alternative fuels and fuel conservation brings to mind the now-prescient quotes of two early Middle East officials, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister in the 1970s, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, and Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates from 1979 until his death in 1990. Yamani said in 2000 “The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil...the oil will stay in the ground forever.”  Sheikh Rashid’s oft-quoted line was “My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a camel, I drive a Mercedes, my son drives a Land Rover, his son will drive a Land Rover, but his son will ride a camel.”  Yamani also predicted in 1981 “If we force Western countries to invest heavily in finding alternative sources of energy, they will. This will take them no more than seven to ten years.”

       Fuel efficient vehicles such as the Toyota Prius and Honda Civic hybrid each can get 50 mpg or more during warmer months and 40-45 mpg during the coldest months.  Beginning this year, many more hybrid models will be coming to the marketplace.  Hybrid driving makes you and your car partners in achieving fuel economy--more fun than most video games!  Turbo diesel cars get 40-50 mpg. The sporty new “Smart Car” which can park head-on into the curb and fit in a standard parking space, gets 40 mpg. The Honda Civic natural gas fueled car is considered the “greenest’ and could be fueled right in your garage, if you are connected to the gas pipeline.

     The emergence and continuing development of biofuels offer a good step away from regular gasoline and diesel. The emissions from these fuels are less harmful and more sustainable--for example, 100% biodiesel (B100) biodegrades in approximately 48 hours. Biodiesel is produced from plant oils or animal fat feedstock and offers at least a 300% benefit in energy value, depending on the oil source, including the energy needed to produce it.  In the U. S., soybeans are the most common feedstock.  80% of the soybean is used for soy meal (animal and human food) with 20% used for biodiesel production.  Biodiesel production utilizing algae holds great promise with pilot plants already in operation.

     Ethanol, an alcohol based fuel that replaces gasoline, although more controversial, still offers energy value and environmental benefits when compared to petroleum gas.  Many agree that moving away from corn based ethanol to cellulosic based feedstocks, such as agricultural and forest wood waste is desirable. Government research indicates that ethanol is not deserving of the reputation it has recently acquired, however.  It is worthy of further investigation before drawing hard conclusions.  

    Read on to learn more about each of these conservation measures and other options that will allow you to be part of the movement to an improved future for transportation.  You can also go to the Clean Cities web site,www.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/  or www.fueleconomy.gov for more tips and information about emerging technologies, vehicles and fuel efficiency advice.

Today’s Alternative Fuels

 Ethanol (CH3CH2OH) is grain alcohol currently in volume production in the U.S. Midwest.  The feedstock is almost 100 percent corn at present, a controversial fact in the ongoing dialogue of higher food costs vs. fuel for driving. Congress wanted 9 billion gallons of ethanol produced and marketed in the U.S. in 2008 as a 10 percent blend with regular, no-lead gasoline.  The 10 percent blend—gasohol—can be used in any spark-ignited internal combustion engine and is pretty well available anywhere in the U.S.  To use ethanol in higher blends up to 85 percent—E85—requires modification to older engines or a “Flex-Fuel” modern engine.  Several million Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) vehicles are on U.S. highways today—mostly GM and Ford cars--most burning regular gasoline because of the unavailability of E85 outside the Midwest and especially on the east and west coasts.

      Ethanol from corn has an EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested) of 1.2 to 1.5—you get back a gallon and one-half for each gallon invested.  This is very low by energy industry standards and were it not for a powerful grain lobby ethanol from corn would not be produced in the billion gallon volume it is today.  Ethanol from other plant matter including forest waste, so-called cellulosic ethanol, shows a much higher EROEI and is under several federally-funded studies to find breakthrough technology to bring it to market. The ethanol poster child is Brazil where the alcohol comes from the abundant sugar cane crop.  Most cars sold in Brazil are FFVs and about half the fuel sold is ethanol in a variety of mixes and pricing.  Good, bad or indifferent, ethanol will be a major part of any progress the U.S. makes toward reducing crude oil imports.

 
Biobutanol (C4H9OH) could become a major player in the alcohol fuel market in the next five years, due mainly to corporate heavyweights DuPont and BP investing a large stake in its production. Butanol has been manufactured for more than 100 years, mainly from petroleum sources. Biobutanol is made from biomass (plant material) and is said to be superior to ethanol as a motor fuel for three main reasons:  1) it contains nearly 90 percent of the energy of gasoline compared to 70 percent for ethanol; 2) butanol is less corrosive than ethanol and can thus be shipped in existing pipelines and infrastructure since it does not blend so readily with water;  3) it can be blended with gasoline at higher rates than ethanol without engine modification—up to perhaps 16 percent compared to ethanol’s 10 percent.  The existing ethanol infrastructure can be easily adapted to produce biobutanol and it can be made from all current ethanol feedstocks, including cellulosic.  Shipping through existing petroleum fuels pipelines is a critical feature and a great advantage for butanol. DuPont is working on an enzyme to break down cellulose into fermentable sugars economically. BP is building a pilot laboratory and a production plant, both in the U.K.  Biobutanol is one alternative fuel to watch closely.

 
Here’s a fresh idea: Let sugar cane be the sweetener for reestablishing a diplomatic and trade relationship with post-Fidel Cuba.  The Cubans will be happy to have an export market right next door and the ‘cane could become feedstock for millions of gallons of biobutanol.  Brazil gets most of its ethanol feedstock from sugar cane.

 Methanol (CH3OH) is commonly known as wood alcohol.  It is the simplest liquid fuel molecule known to chemistry and can be readily made from practically any organic material. This includes non-edible biomass, human and animal waste, municipal trash, coal and natural gas.  Methanol contains only about half the energy of gasoline, severely reducing range when used as a driving fuel.  Methanol blends easily with water and is smokeless which is good when extinguishing methanol fires on the race track but bad when you are trying to extinguish the fire—an additive is required to reveal its flame.   It is easily made from coal and has a long pedigree dating back to ancient Egyptian embalming practices.  A distant third in the alcohol-as-fuel competition, methanol should not be counted out. The nation’s coal resources are immense and intense research continues on sequestering CO2 and isolating mercury and other undesirable properties from a coal-to-liquid (CTL) process. Methanol is a valuable alcohol and will likely play an important role in blends of fuels to reduce U.S. crude oil imports in the near future.

 Biodiesel is a biodegradable, nontoxic replacement for petroleum-based diesel. Biodiesel is a registered trademark of the National Biodiesel Board and refers specifically to the chemical compound Fatty Acid Methy Ester (FAME).  It can be used in most modern diesel engines in various blends up to 20 percent without major modification. It is not the same as petroleum diesel.  Some vehicle manufacturers’ warranties specify low percentage biodiesel blends B2-B5 but continued use and testing is proving what a high quality fuel biodiesel is.  Technically a mono-alkyl ester-based oxygenated oil made from vegetable oils, animal fats or even waste fry oil from restaurants, biodiesel is essentially free of carbon, sulfur and aromatic compounds. Most U.S. biodiesel today is made from soybeans.  Other oil sources include rape seed, flax, mustard and even palm oil. Compared to refining crude oil, the biodiesel-making process is dramatically simple—virtually anyone can make biodiesel in his/her kitchen.  The fuel burns significantly cleaner than petrodiesel, reducing lifecycle CO2 emissions (primary greenhouse gas) in proportion to the blend—B20 reduces CO2 20 percent, B5 5 percent, etc.   With no sulfur, biodiesel combustion produces no sulfur dioxide (SO2), an ingredient in sulfuric acid, the primary component of acid rain. The energy content of biodiesel is only slightly less than that of petrodiesel—120,000 btu versus 130,000. The superior engine lubricating characteristics of biodiesel more than make up the slight shortfall in btus, especially with today’s ultra-low-sulfur-diesel (ULSD). The original engine built by inventor Rudolph Diesel in 1896 ran on peanut and other heavy oils.  Diesel envisioned his engines in use worldwide in agricultural applications, where farmers could grow their own feedstocks and make their own fuel.   

     Today’s biodiesel is registered with the US EPA as a fuel and fuel additive under the Clean Air Act. Biodiesel must meet the specifications of the American Society of Testing and Materials (ASTM) standard D 6751.  B100 (neat biodiesel) meets the standards set by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and has been designated an alternative fuel by the U.S. Departments of Energy (DOE) and Transportation (DOT).  The U.S. 2008 biodiesel production will exceed 500 million gallons, about 1.25 percent of the nation’s 40 billion gallon diesel appetite. Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Great Britain are also big producers of biodiesel.  Exciting research is occurring in the algae realm—look at www.solazyme.com for one company’s approach.

     Recently a new substitute for diesel product has appeared.  Called “Renewable” diesel and made from coal through the Fisher-Tropsch process, this product is not really renewable (coal is a fossil fuel)  and would certainly be considered a hydrocarbon fuel.  However, using biomass for a feedstock it would qualify as renewable and an alternative to petrodiesel. Much study and experimentation continue in all these fields.

           Biodiesel presents the dual challenge of shortage of supply and cold weather operation in northern states.  Blends above B5 are not practical for diesel operators in these colder areas in the winter months. But it is an excellent renewable alternative fuel.

Compressed Natural G as(CNG), despite being a fossil fuel product, is considered an alternative fuel since it burns so cleanly.  There are good supplies in North America, too, and CNG can be a significant contributor toward displacing the use of gasoline and diesel.  “Natural” gas is what comes up the borehole first after striking oil.  If there is no facility for piping the gas to a terminal where it can be processed for use, the gas is burned/flared at the well site—a huge waste of resource seen less and less today.  Mostly it is piped to metropolitan areas for use in homes, offices, industry and, more and more, transportation. Compressed to 3000-3600 pounds per square inch (psi) natural gas performs best in vehicles especially designed to burn it. The CNG tank will be an integral part of the vehicle chassis and not use up space in the trunk or cabin of the car or truck. The engine will have been installed and tuned for CNG with attention paid to running cool.  Thousands of regular vehicles have been retrofit, however, and ply the nation’s highways emitting about 1/10^th the pollution that a gasoline-powered car or truck does.  CNG is ideal for taxi and other fleet automobiles operating from a home base where the refueling can be controlled and operated safely.  Municipal transit systems, delivery vans (UPS, FEDEX) and school bus operations are other natural candidates for CNG vehicles.  The Honda Civic GX is currently the only CNG-burning, buy-it-off-the-showroom-floor model automobile available in the U.S. Its emissions are almost too small to measure.  Sales are slow to stagnant, though, because refueling is such a problem—there are few CNG pumps at the nation’s mini-mart.  Utah has many CNG refueling locations and, consequently, many CNG cars and trucks. A $3000 tax credit doesn’t hurt, either. (There are restrictions, of course, but Utah does offer incentives to purchase and operate alternative fuel vehicles. Check information online.)

     Honda partnered with Fuelmaker to create Phill, a device for home refueling in areas where natural gas is used for heating, cooking, etc.  Despite the refueling challenge, there are millions of automobiles worldwide and thousands in the U.S. burning CNG and the price of gasoline/diesel has virtually assured that there will be more.  CNG is higher octane than gasoline so engines will generate more horsepower.  There are fewer btus in a gallon of CNG however so vehicle range will be reduced, sometimes as much as 30-35 percent. At this writing CNG is averaging $1.20 to $1.40 less per gallon equivalent than gasoline in the Rocky Mountain Region.  Seewww.ngva.org for lots of information on natural gas vehicles.

 
LPG, Propane (C3H8 mostly)  Propane would seem eminently practical as an auto fuel since it is so widely available—buy five or ten gallons at your local supermarket or hardware store.  With more than 10,000 sites across the country providing pump-to-your-tank capability, refueling is  much like filling your car with gasoline.  Performance is reported so close to gasoline performance that most drivers cannot detect the slight loss of power. Clean-burning LPG is an approved DOE alternative fuel and deserves consideration by anyone wanting to change from gasoline.           Conversion of just about any gasoline-powered vehicle is possible for $2500 to $4000. Much of the cost can be recovered through reduced maintenance and fuel prices (sometimes) below those of gasoline. In April 2008 propane was slightly more expensive than gasoline in gasoline gallon equivalent (gge).  Lots of information available at the National Propane Gas Association website: www.npga.org 

 Hydrogen (H2) and Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs)

     If there is a great, clean hope out there it is in the form of a hydrogen-powered fuel cell vehicle.  The fuel cell produces electricity through a chemical reaction between oxygen and hydrogen.  The electricity produced charges the battery that powers the electric motor in the vehicle. The emission of the process is water—H2O.  The oxygen for the reaction is drawn from ambient air; the hydrogen must be stored in high pressure tanks onboard the vehicle. 

     The real challenge, though, is separating hydrogen from water or methane or natural gas or other elements with which it has bonded—hydrogen rarely occurs alone in nature.  Most hydrogen used today is produced through steam reforming of methane—a fairly expensive process.  The hope is that someday solar energy could produce hydrogen through electrolysis.  Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy source.  It takes energy to separate hydrogen from other compounds.  Once separated, hydrogen stores energy until it is delivered in gaseous form to a fuel cell.    Hydrogen can also be burned in an internal combustion engine and several experimental vehicles are on the road today in the U.S., Japan and in other countries. Honda has about 100 of its FCXs in the U.S. for testing. Hollywood’s Jamie Lee Curtis has one on a controlled lease.  The BMW Hydrogen 7 is running around burning H2 in its internal combustion engine.  Chevrolet built 100 or so Equinox FCVs for Project Driveaway, a countrywide test-bed project.  It would be hard to say that the automotive industry was not seriously interested in a Hydrogen solution.

     The lure of a clean, limitless fuel is so great that sizeable hydrogen experiments are in progress all around the world.  Experts say 2020-2025 should see breakthrough technologies that will allow the first practical production/release of hydrogen FCVs.

 Electric Vehicles (EVs), Hybrid EVs (HEVs), Plug-In HEVs (PHEVs)

      Other than going straight to bicycles, no technology offers faster progress to a 50 percent reduction in crude oil for transportation than electric and partial electric vehicles.  It is probably appropriate that this 100 year-old technology should again step to center stage after waiting out the country’s long affair with gasoline. It is impossible to avoid thinking “Where would transportation be today if we only had....?”  Examples such as the European and Japanese rail systems come to mind.

     Experts say that the electrical grid can easily handle the first wave of rechargeable vehicles in off-peak hours (evening to early morning).  So where is the hold-up? In a word--batteries. Current battery technology has not progressed to the point that even the highly-touted lithium-ion battery can produce the 30-40 mile minimum range assumed necessary to lure consumers into showrooms for plug-in cars.  Lithium-ion (L-I) is out front in the U.S. while a sodium metal halide battery is powering small European cars.  This is the progression of the art from the old lead-acid batteries (like the one that starts up your car or pickup) through the nickel-metal-hydride (Ni-MH) units in the Honda and Prius Hybrid vehicles. Most announcements of upcoming plug-in hybrid releases have stated that electric power will come from either Ni-MH or L-I batteries. One diversion, though, is the lithium-phosphate battery from OEMtek www.oemtek.com  This battery conversion for the Prius and Ford Escape adds some 25-30 miles electric-only range to these popular hybrids (though at considerable cost--$12,500).

     Hybrid vehicles can be either serial or parallel.  The serial hybrid is like the modern diesel locomotive or the old submarine technology; the internal combustion engine charges up the battery and the electric motor drives the wheels. In the case of the locomotive a big diesel engine drives a generator to produce electricity for the drive wheels.  Why are locomotives electric? The electric motor’s forte is torque. Imagine the torque required to get a mile-long train moving from a standstill.  Enter the reason that electric motors in hybrid cars can be smaller than their internal combustion counterparts. The Prius’ internal combustion engine derives 82 ft-lbs. of torque from 76 hp; the electric motor puts out 295 ft-lbs. of torque from 67 hp.  The parallel hybrid connects both power sources—engine and motor—to the drive wheels and they share the load of moving the vehicle. While coasting downhill the engine can take a rest while the car’s momentum actually charges the battery while slowing the car—the regenerative braking feature. 

     The first true plug-in hybrids from the major auto manufacturers are scheduled for the 2010-12 model years.  But there are lots of vehicles to look at right now.  Take a look at the roadster at: www.teslamotors.com   See lots of electric cars at: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/07/17-electric-cars-overview-2005-to-2008.php

A very new addition (and the cause of a huge lawsuit with Tesla) is the Fisker Karma: www.fiskerautomotive.com
 

What is ‘Gas to Liquids’ Technology?

     Gas-to-liquids (GTL) is the term describing processes for converting natural gas into liquid fuels such as gasoline and diesel. The favored gas-to-liquids production process is currently the Fisher-Tropsch process which dates back to the1920s.  Germany used the process extensively in the 1930s and ‘40s coverting coal to fuels for its war machines and aircraft.

     Coal-to-liquid (CTL) is at present being touted as a significant source of liquid fuels in the Rocky Mountain West, utilizing the extensive coal deposits in eastern Montana and Wyoming.  See  http://www.meic.org/energy/coals-to-liquid-fuels  The challenge is the capture (called “sequestration”) of the carbon dioxide, mercury, sulfur and other toxins yielded by the gasification process.  Studies continue.

     Biomass-to-liquid (BTL) is the process of converting biomass to a range of useful fuels, including gasoline and diesel.  Part of the value of this particular process is the renewable nature of the feedstock and the compatibility of the fuels produced with the existing distribution infrastructure. A significant issue is the CO2-neutral aspect of the biomass feedstock.  CO2 sequestration is a complex and expensive challenge.

The New CAFE System of Estimating MPG

      CAFE is “Corporate Average Fuel Economy.” With the 2008 automobiles, the mpg numbers on the window sticker of new cars reflect a more realistic estimate of what the vehicle can actually obtain in real-world driving.  The pre-2008 models use a mpg system dating back some 40 years.  The new system uses a dynamometer but applies adjusting factors to account for tire pressure, weather, driving habits, highway speeds, wind resistance, etc.  In most cases, estimates are revised downward from prior sticker numbers.

With the 2008 model year auto-

mobiles, the system of calculating

miles-per-gallon has changed to

more accurately reflect the mileage

the vehicle will obtain under real

driving conditions.

     The new CAFE rules are part of the larger Energy Independence and Security Act signed into law in December 2007.  The law requires the average fuel economy of the nation’s new car and light truck fleet to begin increasing from the present 27.5 mpg with the 2011 model year to reach a minimum of 35 mpg by 2020. 

     The biggest change in the CAFÉ standards is that large pickups and SUVs of 8500 lbs. or more will now be held to a standard.  Such vehicles were previously exempted from a mileage requirement.  Details of the new standards will supposedly be hammered out by 2010.

 
 Let’s Get Started!

     Starting with some known numbers, let’s get going on a solution to the transportation fuels problem in the U.S.  Our daily consumption is about 21 million barrels per day (21mbpd) of liquids—crude oil and refined products. 14 million barrels of that are imported, 7 mbpd are produced domestically.  The easiest gallon saved is the gallon not burned. Here we go--let’s all agree to:

1)  Immediately reduce our fuel consumption by 10 percent—that’s you, me, the bus company, the military, the airlines, the long haul truckers—every vehicle that moves.  For

everyday drivers it means cutting out about 1200-1500 driving miles per year, say, 100 miles per month, 25 miles per week.  It might mean parking the rig for one day, combining trips through better planning, carpooling, hitch-hiking--whatever. It is very doable.  From 21 mbpd we go to 18.9 mbpd by just not driving, hauling, flying, cruising, etc. 

 2)  Find another 10 percent by reducing speed limits to 60 mph, fine-tuning our engines, pumping up the tires and employing the (safe!) driving techniques of the hypermilers: www.hypermiling.com  www.ecomodder.com   This would be a good time for Congress to push through a 40 mpg CAFÉ standard, up from the 35 mpg mandated for 2020.  Idle Reduction programs should be implemented nationwide.  Now we are down to 17 mbpd.

3)  Find 10 percent more through driving more hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles and assisting the major fleet operators in the country in either operating hybrids or switching from diesel to compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles (see www.ngva.org ). (Maybe we should start with the school district buses? What a great opportunity to reduce diesel use AND improve children’s health!) We’re still using 15.3 mbpd now but almost half is domestically produced.

 4)  Finally, bring into the market all the alternative fuels—ethanol, methanol, biobutanol, biodiesel, CNG, LPG--to reduce gasoline and diesel usage by another 5 percent, taking us below 15 mbpd, half of which we can produce domestically for the next few years.

      Of course not every fuel will work everywhere—most ethanol is made in the Midwest and economical transportation is a challenge--ethanol cannot be shipped in gasoline pipelines. It absorbs water too easily and is too corrosive. Ethanol must be shipped in tank railcars or by tanker truck. CNG refueling stations are very scattered in most states, discouraging individual owner/drivers; but single point or home base refueling for taxis, fleets, delivery vans, etc. are tailor-made situations for CNG.  At this writing CNG is about $3.00 per gallon--$1.25 less expensive than regular gasoline.

       This overall 33 percent reduction from 21 mbpd to 14 mbpd consumption in the U.S. is achieved through efficiency improvements, technological advances, adapting alternative fuels and altering consumptive lifestyles toconserve as much oil as possible.  Beneficial side effects include reduced greenhouse gas emissions, carbon and other pollutants. At this point, through dedicated conservation and an aggressive (probably highly subsidized) biofuels program, we have bought some time.

Realistically, What Can We Expect?

     Four years ago, with crude oil at less than $40 per barrel and regular gasoline about $1.50, Americans were hardly paying attention to the role fuel costs played in their household budgets.  In 2008 auto dealers’ lots are full of pickups and big SUVs and there is a line to purchase hybrid and other fuel-efficient vehicles.  It would seem that the difference between $1.50 and $4.00+ per gallon gasoline has finally awakened a distracted driving public.  Europeans are used to paying twice our prices--$8 to $10 per gallon is the norm but they drive much more fuel-efficient cars and use public transportation whenever practical.

     In 1919 gasoline was 25 cents at the pump, some $3.00 in today’s money—not so cheap as your grandfather would have you believe.  At $1.17 per gallon in 1999, gasoline was the cheapest it had ever been in terms of consumer prices.  Thus at $4.00 or more today’s gallon is nearly four times what it was a decade ago…no wonder people are paying attention! It is easy, though, to lose sight of the fact that, adjusted for inflation, gasoline is cheaper today than in the early 1960s, time of the muscle cars—GTOs, Super Sports, Ramchargers, 409s, etc.. Talk about guzzlers.

     Fuel costs as a factor of typical household budget is only 4 to 5 percent—not a deal breaker but something definitely to be dealt with.  Add interest costs, insurance, maintenance, etc. and transportation quickly moves to 20 percent of the typical budget.  Commuters are hard hit and sales of homes in distant suburbs have plummeted—workers can no longer afford the commute to their jobs. 

     High oil prices are predicted to continue to ripple through the economies of all the industrialized nations and, perhaps, mobilize an anxious public to address the problem with their elected officials at all levels of government.  In the larger picture, more than $1 billion per day leaves the U.S. economy to import oil to move us and our stuff around.  Of our 14 million barrel per day import habit, some 2.5 million barrels are of Middle East origin. It is interesting to note that a 2 mile-per-gallon increase in the CAFÉ standard would eliminate need for that oil.

     Clearly we need to move to alternative fuels for reasons other than just fuel cost. Climate change, energy independence, air quality and the agricultural boom associated with renewable fuels are all good reasons to change our driving and fueling habits. Certainly there is no silver bullet waiting to be fired that will solve the problem alone.  It will likely take many or all of the alternative choices in combination to bridge the multiyear gap between now and the time of a climate-benign, affordable, renewable transportation system. We got off to a flying start in the 1970s but the effort sputtered when cheap crude oil flooded the market.  That is not likely to happen again.   This time the shortages are real.

           Probably the greatest adjustment will be mental: it is highly unlikely that a fuel will be found to keep us driving in the manner to which we have become accustomed—BAU—business as usual.  Now we need to become the innovators, inventors and clever adapters who have long characterized the American entrepreneurial spirit.  If peak oil is a crisis, that crisis must become an opportunity.  Climate scientists say that the fossil fuel age must end if civilization is to survive. Do we need more incentive than that?

Resources

Books:

Baer, Robert, Sleeping with the Devil (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2003)

Berman, Daniel M. & O’Connor, John T., Who Owns the Sun? (Vermont: Chelsea Green, 1996)

Boyle, Godfrey,  Renewable Energy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004)

Bures, Paul, America: The Oil Hostage (College Station, TX, Virtualbookworm, 2006)

Campbell, Colin J., The Coming Oil Crisis (Essex, England: Multi-Science, 1997)

Carson, Iain and Vaitheeswaran, Vijay, Zoom (New York: Hachette, 2007)

Cooke, Ronald R., Oil, Jihad and Destiny (Opportunity Analysis, 2004)

Deffeyes, Kenneth S., Beyond Oil (New York: Hill and Wang, 2005)

Deffeyes, Kenneth S., Hubbert’s Peak (Princeton: Princeton University Press: 2001)

Ehrlich, Paul R. & Anne H., One With Nineveh (Washington: Shearwater, 2004)

Emirates Center, The Future of Oil as a Source of Energy (Abu Dhabi: Emirates Center, 2003)

Goodstein, David, Out of Gas (New York: W.W. Norton, 2004)

Grant, Lindsey, The Collapsing Bubble (Santa Ana, CA:  Seven Locks Press, 2005)

Hartmann, Thom, The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight (New York: Three Rivers Press, 2004)

Heinberg, Richard, The Party’s Over (New York: New Society, 2003)

Heinberg, Richard, The Oil Depletion Protocol (Gabriola Is., BC, New Society, 2006)

Hicks, Brian and Nelder, Chris, Profit From the Peak (Hoboken, NJ, John Wiley, 2008)

Hiro, Dilip, Blood of the Earth (New York: Nation Books, 2007)

Hoffman, Peter,  Tomorrow’s Energy: Hydrogen (Boston: MIT Press, 2002)

Huber, Peter W. & Mills, Mark P., The Bottomless Well (New York: Basic Books, 2005)

Johnson, Chalmers, The Sorrows of Empire (New York: Henry Holt, 2004)

Klare, Michael T., Blood and Oil (New York: Henry Holt, 2004)

Klare, Michael T., Resource Wars (New York: Henry Holt, 2001)

Kleveman, Lutz C.,  The New Great Game (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press,  2003)

Kunstler, James H., The Long Emergency (New York: Atlantic Monthly Press, 2005

Leggett, Jeremy K., The Carbon War (New York: Routledge, 2001)

Leggett, Jeremy K., Half Gone (London: Portobello, 2005)

Leggett, Jeremy K., The Empty Tank (New York: Random House, 2005)

Lovins, Amory B., Winning the Oil Endgame (Snowmass, CO: Rocky Mountain Institute, 2005)

McKillop, Andrew, The Final Energy Crisis (London: Pluto Press, 2005)

Odum, Howard T. & Elizabeth C.,  A Prosperous Way Down (Boulder: Univ. of Colorado, 2001)

Pfeiffer, Dale Allen, The End of the Oil Age (Napa, CA: Lulu Press, 2004)

Pfeiffer, Dale Allen, Eating Fossil Fuels (Gabriola Is., BC: New Society, 2006)

Roberts, Paul R., The End of Oil (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2004)

Sandalow, David, Freedom From Oil (New York: McGraw Hill, 2008)

Savinar, Matthew D., The Oil Age is Over (Kearny, NE: Morris Publishing, 2004)

Shah, Sonia, Crude: The Story of Oil (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2004)

Simmons, Matthew R., Twilight in the Desert (Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons, 2005)

Sperling, Daniel & Connor, James S. The Hydrogen Energy Transition (Burlington, MA: Academic Press, 2004)

Stegner, Wallace, Discovery! (Vista, CA: Selwa, 2007)

Sterrett, Francis S., Alternative Fuels and the Environment (CRC, 1994)

Yergin, Daniel, The Prize (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1991)

 
Helpful Websites

www.aapg.org  American Association of Petroleum Geologists—good background on oil     exploration, supplies, distribution.

www.altfuels.com Alternative fuel website, alternative fuel vehicle group

www.biodiesel.org Official website of the National Biodiesel Board, current info on BD 

www.car-stuff.com A complete source of automotive links, car enthusiasts, alt fuels, etc.

www.chevron.com Typical corporate oil website, good information on current sources/supply

www.cleanairnet.org The Clean Air Initiative advances innovative ways to improve air quality www.dri.edu  Desert Research Institute website offers perspective on global warming.

www.ecomodder.com  Driving tips for those with a passion for high mileage

www.e85fuel.com National Ethanol Vehicle Association website encourages use of ethanol,     ethanol blends

www.eere.energy.gov Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy website. Timely efficiency      information, Alternative Fuels Data Center.

www.eere.energy.gov/cleancitites     The Clean Cities Coalition national homepage, description, etc

www.eia.doe.gov Energy Information Administration site—statistics, basic information 

www.ems.org  Environmental Media Services—a nonprofit organization that provides     current environmental information to journalists.

www.engva.org European Natural Gas Vehicle Association website.

www.epa.gov  National Environmental Protection Agency website.

www.ethanol.org American Coalition for Ethanol website—grassroots voice for ethanol.

www.ethanolmarketplace.com Real-time pricing, availability of ethanol

www.fiskerautomotive.com Site of the Fisker Karma, new hybrid vehicle made in Finland

www.fueleconomy.gov  Tips and information about emerging technologies, vehicles, etc.

www.fordvehicles. Manufacturer website for Escape Hybrid—good illustrations, explanation com/escape  of hybrid technology.

www.fromthe  Alternative view website with references, recommendations, alternatives to wilderness.com  doomsday scenario predicted for end of the oil age.

www.fuelcells.org Excellent technical background on fuel cells, fuel cell industry.

www.fueleconomy.gov Informative website on fuel economy, vehicles, efficiency ratings, etc.

www.futuretruck.org Educational website dedicated to altering trucks for higher fuel mpgs 

www.greenfuels.org Canadian alternative fuel site promoting biodiesel, ethanol from grain.

www.h2fc.com  The business of hydrogen fuel cells, manufacturers, progress.

www.h2fuelcells.org The hydrogen fuel cell institute, the “portal to clean air.”

www.hfcletter.com Hydrogen fuel cell newsletter—alternative energy news since 1986.

www.Honda.com/insight Honda pioneered the hybrid electric vehicle—Insight was the first.

www.howstuffworks.com. Possibly the most informative mechanical and technical site on the web

www.hubbertpeak. Explains the methodology of “peak” theory of predicting decline in crude oil com   supply.

www.hydrogen.org The hydrogen and fuel cell information system on the internet.

www.hypermiling.com Site for squeezing the most miles from each gallon of fuel driving

www.iags.org  Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. Links energy and www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net Alternative viewpoint on the ramifications of severely decreased oil supplies.

www.meic.org  Montana Environmental Information Center, coal-to-liquid fuel info www.naturalgas.org Educational website covering all aspects of natural gas and the ng industry

www.ncga.com National Corn Growers Association website, information on industry  

www.ngvc.org  Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition—all about natural gas vehicles, benefits

www.npc.org  National Petroleum Council, advisory group to the Secretary of Energy

www.npga.org  National Propane Gas Association website

www.opec.org  Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.  All about OPEC.

www.oemtek.com Battery conversion to make Prius, Escape PHEVs

www.peakoil.net Colin Campbell’s London association studying world oil supplies.

www.peakoil.org More about “Peak Oil” theory, exploration and study of world oil supplies. 

www.rebresearch.com Hydrogen purifiers, membrane reactors for fuel cells.

www.rqriley.com Interesting source of design and product developmental information.

www.sciencedaily.com Scientific news with complete, informative archive.

www.teslamotors.com Site for the now-available Tesla Roadster

www.toyota.com/prius The best-selling hybrid vehicle in the U.S.  Good illustrations.

www.treehugger.com Alternative fuel, vehicle website with electric car overview

www.ucsusa.org Union of Concerned Scientists—looking for environmental solutions.

www.idaho.edu Excellent research information, long history with alternative fuels.

www.wikipedia.org Excellent online encyclopedia.  Thorough, easily-searched.

www.wtrg.com  Analysis, planning, forecast and data services for energy industry.

www.yellowstonetetoncleanenergy.org Website of the Yellowstone-Teton Clean Energy Coalition—alt fuel source data, scheduled events.

About the Yellowstone-Teton Clean Energy Coalition…

     The Yellowstone-Teton Clean Energy Coalition (formerly The Greater Yellowstone-Teton Clean Cities Coalition) seeks to advance the economic, environmental, and energy security of the United States by supporting local decisions to adopt practices that contribute to the reduction of petroleum consumption in the transportation sector.

     Nationally, Clean Cities carries out this objective through a network of approximately 90 volunteer, community-based coalitions which develop public/private partnerships to promote alternative fuels and vehicles, fuel blends, fuel economy, hybrid vehicles, and idle reduction. Clean Cities is part of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s Freedom Car & Vehicle Technologies Program.

     The Yellowstone-Teton Clean Energy Coalition (YTCEC) is the most rural of the national Clean Cities Coalitions.  Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks serve as showcase demonstration and educational centers for alternative fuels.